AAG Research tracks structural deficits across the critical minerals complex — with primary coverage in copper, gold, uranium, and platinum-group metals. Our work is built on first-principles supply modeling, not consensus revision. We publish independent analysis for institutional and informed retail investors navigating the commodity supercycle.
The Long Copper Thesis: Structural Deficit Through 2031
Mine supply additions are running materially below consensus estimates. We model a 4.8Mt cumulative deficit by decade-end, with no credible pipeline to close the gap.
GOLD
8 MIN READ
Central Bank Accumulation and the New Gold Bid Floor
Emerging-market central banks absorbed 1,037 tonnes in 2024. This structural demand shift creates a durable bid floor that alters the metal's historical volatility profile.
URANIUM
15 MIN READ
Uranium Contract Reset: Utilities Are Caught Underhedged
With 40% of U.S. utility long-term contracts expiring before 2027, procurement officers face a thin spot market and increasingly assertive producer pricing. We quantify the exposure.
PGMs
10 MIN READ
Palladium Substitution Risk Is Fully Priced — Platinum Is Not
Market pricing implies full gasoline-to-EV transition within five years. We argue this pace is structurally impossible and that platinum's dual-metal role is deeply discounted.
COPPER
11 MIN READ
Chilean Grade Decline: The Stealth Supply Destroyer
Ore grades at the five largest Chilean operations have declined 18% in a decade. When strip-ratio headwinds are modeled correctly, effective supply is 12% below reported figures.
SILVER
9 MIN READ
Industrial Silver Demand: The Grid Storage Catalyst
Silver consumption in grid-scale battery storage is being systematically underestimated by consensus models. We see a 180 million-ounce demand increment by 2028.
COPPER
12 MIN READ
The Long Copper Thesis: Structural Deficit Through 2031
Mine supply additions are running materially below consensus estimates. We model a 4.8Mt cumulative deficit by decade-end, with no credible pipeline to close the gap.
COPPER
11 MIN READ
Chilean Grade Decline: The Stealth Supply Destroyer
Ore grades at the five largest Chilean operations have declined 18% in a decade. When strip-ratio headwinds are modeled correctly, effective supply is 12% below reported figures.
GOLD
8 MIN READ
Central Bank Accumulation and the New Gold Bid Floor
Emerging-market central banks absorbed 1,037 tonnes in 2024. This structural demand shift creates a durable bid floor that alters the metal's historical volatility profile.
URANIUM
15 MIN READ
Uranium Contract Reset: Utilities Are Caught Underhedged
With 40% of U.S. utility long-term contracts expiring before 2027, procurement officers face a thin spot market and increasingly assertive producer pricing. We quantify the exposure.
PGMs
10 MIN READ
Palladium Substitution Risk Is Fully Priced — Platinum Is Not
Market pricing implies full gasoline-to-EV transition within five years. We argue this pace is structurally impossible and that platinum's dual-metal role is deeply discounted.
SILVER
9 MIN READ
Industrial Silver Demand: The Grid Storage Catalyst
Silver consumption in grid-scale battery storage is being systematically underestimated by consensus models. We see a 180 million-ounce demand increment by 2028.
We integrate commodity supply-demand modeling with equity-level capital allocation analysis. Every research brief is built on primary data sourced directly from company filings, mine technical reports, and proprietary operator surveys — not broker consensus revisions. Our models are rebuilt from first principles for each coverage initiation.
02
Analyst Expertise
AAG Research analysts hold backgrounds in special situations investing, geological engineering, and institutional equity research. Team members have collectively spent 80+ years on the buy side, with direct experience allocating capital through multiple commodity cycles at multi-billion-dollar mandates.
03
Risk Disclosures
Research published by AAG Research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Commodity markets involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Analysts may hold positions in covered securities.
.avif)
.png)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
