A transparent ledger of selected AAG Research theses — separating closed ideas, open theses, losses, drawdowns, and case studies tracked from first publication.
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PUBLICLY DOCUMENTED RESEARCH PERFORMANCE
Track Record & Thesis Ledger
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Independent · Not paid promotion
Tracked from first publication
4,400+ readers
+186%
Median closed return
across 12 closed ideas
67%
Win rate on closed ideas
winners net of losses
7+
Years of published research
tracked from first report
150+
Long-form deep dives
across commodities & mining
Figures reflect publicly documented theses. Open positions remain unrealized and subject to change.
METHODOLOGY
How Returns Are Tracked
Returns are measured from the date each thesis was first published or formally introduced to readers. Closed ideas represent outcomes that have been exited or retired. Open theses represent ongoing, unrealized results and may change materially as prices, fundamentals, and thesis updates evolve.
01
Step 01
First Publication Date
The date each thesis was first introduced to readers.
02
Step 02
Reference Price
The price used when the
thesis was first documented.
thesis was first documented.
03
Step 03
Closed Ideas
Ideas that have been exited,
retired, or formally closed.
retired, or formally closed.
04
Step 04
Open Theses
Ongoing theses that may
change materially over time.
change materially over time.
LEDGER · REALIZED
Closed Ideas
Closed ideas include theses that have been exited, retired, or formally closed. Winners and losers are shown together to make the process easier to evaluate.
Company / Ticker
Sector
First Report
Date
Date
Reference
Price
Price
Exit
Price
Price
Return
Status
Thesis Link
LEDGER · UNREALIZED
Open Theses
Open theses represent ongoing, unrealized outcomes. These results may change materially as prices, fundamentals, risk factors, and thesis updates evolve.
Company / Ticker
Sector
First Report
Date
Date
Reference
Price
Price
Current Price
Unrealized Return
Status
Latest Update
TRANSPARENCY
What the Winners and Losers Teach
Not every thesis works. AAG Research tracks mistakes, drawdowns, and broken assumptions because understanding what went wrong is part of improving the research process.
Broken Assumptions
When the original thesis changes, the reasoning is documented so readers can follow how the view evolved.
Drawdowns
Deep-value ideas can be volatile before a thesis has time to play out — drawdowns are part of the process.
Lessons Learned
Mistakes are tracked to improve future research quality, risk awareness, and judgment over time.
ARCHIVE
Historical Case Studies
Selected examples of long-form theses, cycle calls, and research outcomes tracked through multiple updates.
Commodity Cycle · Historical Case Study
Uranium Cycle Case Study
A long-cycle commodity thesis tracked from early-stage sentiment recovery through a major sector repricing.
View Case Study
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PGM / Copper · Open Thesis
Generation Mining
An open thesis focused on commodity exposure, valuation, project development, and cycle timing.
View Thesis
Mining · Closed Idea
Boab Metals
A closed idea used to demonstrate how AAG Research tracks publication date, reference price, exit price, and outcome.
View Thesis
WHY AAG RESEARCH
A research process readers can audit
The ledger above is the output. These are the principles that produce it — the same principles that decide what goes into a premium report, and what gets cut.
Published in public
Every thesis is timestamped to first publication. Nothing is added retroactively, and losses are kept in the record alongside the wins.
Original primary research
Deep dives built from filings, on-the-ground operator conversations, and cycle analysis — not headlines or repackaged consensus.
Independent perspective
No paid promotion, no banking relationships, no soft-dollar arrangements. The only client is the reader.
Risk-first framing
Every idea is presented with the downside, the assumptions that have to hold, and the conditions that would invalidate it.
IMPORTANT
Research-Only Notice
AAG Research provides general investment research and education only. It does not provide personalized financial advice. All investments involve risk, including loss of capital. Open theses remain subject to volatility, drawdowns, and thesis changes. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
JOIN AAG RESEARCH
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Full archive of long-form theses & updates
Cycle calls across commodities, mining, shipping
Loss analysis and post-mortems published openly
4,400+ subscribers
150+ deep dives
Public thesis tracking
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